2026 Utility Forecast and Recommendations from Leading Industry Sources

Utilities are entering 2026 with more operational pressure, higher reliability expectations, and sharper demand uncertainty than in any previous planning cycle. This is not based on opinion or internal analysis. It reflects the latest findings from three respected industry sources. The NERC Winter Reliability Assessment 2025 highlights elevated risk in several regions due to extreme weather, supply constraints, and generator outages. Deloitte’s research reveals tightening workforce capacity, rising capital costs, and growing operational strain as utilities modernize their grids. McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective 2025 shows accelerating electricity demand across buildings, industry, and especially data centers, reshaping how utilities must plan future capacity and execute capital programs.

The combined message from these sources is clear. Utilities cannot rely on historical averages or linear planning assumptions. The data generated throughout 2025 will play a pivotal role in shaping accurate, defensible, AI-informed plans for 2026. Vitruvi strengthens this process by providing the structured, field-verified construction data that predictive models depend on, enabling utilities to make better decisions about capital deployment, workforce allocation, and operational readiness.

The following sections outline what industry research reveals about 2026 risks and priorities, and how utilities can use this year’s data to prepare more effectively.

NERC’s Warning Signs for 2026

NERC’s Winter Reliability Assessment identifies concrete reliability risks that will influence 2026 planning. Regional exposure to extreme cold remains a significant concern, especially in areas where fuel constraints and limited reserve margins converge. Generator outages under winter stress compound the challenge. These reliability conditions do not impact only operations. They affect capital programs as priorities shift, timelines compress, and construction seasons become more unpredictable.

“The NPCC-NY, NPCC-New England, and MISO South-Central regions are at elevated risk of energy shortfalls during extreme weather.”
NERC Winter Reliability Assessment 2025

Utilities need visibility into how this winter actually unfolded. Every outage, delay, material bottleneck, and design adjustment generates operational data that can shape better planning. Vitruvi enables utilities to compare plans versus performance in real time and understand where schedule variances, dependency issues, or resource gaps emerged. With this clarity, utilities can apply AI forecasting to refine 2026 plans and reduce project risk.

Demand Is Surging Faster Than Expected - McKinsey

The demand environment described in McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective underscores the urgency of better planning and faster execution. Electricity consumption continues to grow across sectors, and new load categories such as data centers are expanding far faster than the traditional grid was designed to accommodate. These shifts heighten the need for consistent, high-quality construction delivery and better foresight into workforce and material requirements.

“The United States is expected to see an average annual growth rate in data-center-related power demand of nearly 25 percent until 2030, and data centers could account for more than 14 percent of US power demand by 2030.”
McKinsey Global Energy Perspective 2025

Vitruvi supports this by bringing all construction activity into a single digital workflow. Utilities can track contractor performance, measure actual production rates, monitor site readiness, and ensure alignment between design and field execution. When operational data from Vitruvi is combined with AI, utilities gain a more realistic picture of how rising demand will influence project sequencing, cost, and schedule risk in 2026.

Workforce Pressure Is Growing - Deloitte

Deloitte’s research highlights that utilities are operating under growing strain as workforce demographics shift and asset portfolios become more complex. Experienced workers nearing retirement, rising labor costs, and increasing regulatory expectations all place pressure on capital and maintenance programs. These conditions amplify the importance of improving productivity and making data-driven decisions.

“Approximately 25 percent of utility workers are over the age of 55, with many eligible for retirement within the next decade.”
Deloitte

Vitruvi helps utilities address these challenges by consolidating field data, job durations, unit rates, materials, and contractor performance into a single system of record. This allows utilities to understand precisely how work was done in 2025, which becomes crucial for accurate workforce planning, capital allocation, and schedule forecasting for 2026. With a reliable operational dataset, utilities can use AI to identify where efficiency gains are possible, where risks will emerge, and where to focus limited resources for the highest impact.

AI Turns 2025 Data Into 2026 Insight

The operational data generated in 2025 contains patterns that reveal how well crews performed, how materials moved through the supply chain, how design changes influenced timelines, and where weather or site conditions caused disruption. AI enables utilities to interpret this data at scale and derive actionable insights.

With accurate, location-specific data captured in Vitruvi, AI models can help utilities answer essential planning questions. Which circuits or substations will require reinforcement. How many crews and contractors will be needed to meet next year’s service targets. Where projects are most likely to fall behind. What the true drivers of cost variance were. How shifting demand might alter project priorities. And how reliability risks identified by NERC will affect construction readiness.

AI is most effective when trained on real-world performance conditions. Vitruvi ensures the underlying dataset is complete, consistent, and accurate, giving utilities the clarity needed to run credible scenarios and refine next year’s plan.

What Utilities Should Do Now

The research from NERC, Deloitte, and McKinsey offers a consistent set of recommendations for utilities preparing for 2026. Teams should analyze this winter's reliability events and integrate those insights into next year’s capital strategy. They should review construction performance in Vitruvi to identify inefficiencies and bottlenecks. They should use AI to simulate workforce constraints, weather disruptions, demand variation, and supply chain conditions. They should adjust budgets and schedules based on actual 2025 performance data. And they should strengthen communication workflows to meet rising customer expectations.

Preparing for 2026 requires a more predictive, data-driven approach. Utilities that understand what worked, what stalled, and what drove cost or schedule variance in 2025 will be significantly better positioned to maintain reliability and manage risk next year.

The Path to a More Reliable 2026

Grid conditions are evolving rapidly, and the combination of severe weather, rising demand, workforce transitions, and infrastructure needs requires utilities to rethink how they plan and operate. NERC highlights regional reliability risks. Deloitte identifies workforce and cost pressures. McKinsey demonstrates how demand growth will reshape those capital and operational strategies.

Utilities that combine these external insights with their own construction and operations data will be the ones best prepared for 2026. Vitruvi provides the data foundation, and AI turns that data into foresight. Together, they help utilities plan more confidently, execute more predictably, and build a more resilient future.

Sources

1. North American Electric Reliability Corporation. Winter Reliability Assessment 2025.
2. Deloitte. Harnessing the Power of Energy and Water. 2024.
3. McKinsey and Company. Global Energy Perspective 2025.